Monday, February 3
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NASA computes the current probability of losing a shuttle at 1 in 250. Out of that, the largest single risks are mechanical failure during ascent (1 in 500) and micrometeoroid/orbital debris strike (1 in 700), with all other causes combined accounting for the remainder. The next round of SSME upgrades (Block III) will likely reduce the risk of ascent failure below that of micrometeoroids/orbital debris.
